Trevor Lawrence Dynasty Analysis

Buying the Dip on a Former Generational Talent

Trevor Lawrence's 2024 season ended with a whimper—placed on IR after just 10 games with a shoulder injury requiring surgery. Once heralded as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, Lawrence's NFL career has been marked by flashes of brilliance interrupted by stretches of mediocrity. His current dynasty value sits at a crossroads, presenting one of the most fascinating buy-low opportunities in fantasy football. With a new coaching regime led by Liam Coen arriving in Jacksonville, is 2025 the year Lawrence finally delivers on his immense potential?

The Statistical Disconnect

Lawrence's advanced metrics tell a tale of untapped potential. Despite an underwhelming fantasy finish as QB22 in 2024 (15.2 points per game), his underlying numbers suggest a quarterback on the verge of a breakthrough. Consider these compelling metrics from his abbreviated 2024 campaign:

• Elite Deep Ball Proficiency: Lawrence ranked 2nd in air yards per attempt (9.4) and 7th in deep ball accuracy rating, connecting on 41.9% of his deep passes (6th in the NFL).

• Precision Under the Right Conditions: His 55.8% deep ball catchable pass rate ranked 2nd league-wide, demonstrating exceptional downfield touch.

• Explosive Play Potential: Lawrence's explosive rating (EPX) of 104.6 ranked 11th among quarterbacks, indicating above-average big-play ability.

The contrast between these impressive efficiency metrics and his lackluster fantasy production points to systemic issues rather than player limitations. From 2022-2023, Lawrence averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game—respectable QB12-13 production—before regressing in 2024 amid injuries and coaching dysfunction.

Lawrence's career has been a statistical rollercoaster. After throwing 25 TDs against just 8 INTs in 2022 (a stellar 3:1 ratio), he regressed to 21:14 in 2023, then 11:7 in his abbreviated 2024. This inconsistency has frustrated fantasy managers and created a buying window for those willing to bet on his talent.

Dynasty Outlook: The Coen Effect

Jacksonville's hiring of Liam Coen as head coach represents a potential career-altering development for Lawrence. Coen, the architect of Tampa Bay's offensive revival in 2024, brings a fresh approach to a Jaguars offense that stagnated under former offensive coordinator Press Taylor.

Taylor's play-calling was widely criticized for failing to adapt to defensive adjustments and for "killing Trevor Lawrence" with predictable schemes. The disconnect was evident in Lawrence's usage—despite ranking 2nd in air yards per attempt, Jacksonville's offense struggled to create consistent scoring opportunities, with Lawrence ranking just 27th in red zone attempts per game.